Trading, Gambling & Las Vegas

I was recently taking a little R&R with my parents in Las Vegas. While I am not a big gambler, I thought I would do an experiment.

I decided to use the same rules that are essential for profitable trading and apply them to gambling.

Rule 1: Choose the right game. In gambling you need focus on a particular game that that is easy to play and understand. The same is true in trading. You should never trade markets that you don\'t understand and are difficult to trade real-time. I think alot of traders trade something just because it is popular. That is very foolish as you can have your head handed to you if you don\'t know what you are doing.

Rule 2: Choose a bet size that is within your comfort level. I decided on a bet(unit) size of $1. To some of you that may be small, but I chose this amount simply because it is nothing to me and I know that my emotions would not affect the game over this small amount of money.

Many traders downfall lies in betting too big!

Take forex traders for example, when they trade a regular sized forex contract each point(pip) is worth $10.00. If they lose just 20 pips on a trade, that is $200 and that may be way too big both financially and psychologically for the trader to stomach. As a result they start trading out of fear and anxiety and make a lot of mistakes.

If this sounds like you, then by simply switching to the smaller mini forex contract where each point(pip) is worth just $1.00 you may find that all your anxiety is gone and that you trade easily and confidently.

If you are a stock trader, you may found that trading 500 shares is way too stressful, but dropping down to 100 shares makes all the difference in the world.

Rule 3: Choose your \"windows of opportunity\" wisely. In every casino there are hundreds of slot and poker machines all trying to grab your attention to get you to play.

When I look for a machine that can give me a \"window of opportunity\" I have 2 criteria.

First, I only look for video poker machines because you can apply certain strategies that can increase your odds. Second, I always look for ones near the casino entrance area as these machines are often programmed to pay out more frequently so that they attract attention and lure gamblers into the casino.

Now in contrast, lets look at how my Father picked a game. He had no rules and was sucked into the first machine that grabbed his attention. In addition, he would choose regular slot machines which didnt allow for any strategies and would play machines that were in the middle of nowhere. Time after time he would lose all his money on these machines.

In trading you must pick your market wisely too. How do you do this? Only trade markets you can afford to trade and also make sure you understand all the rules and nuances of it.

Rule 4: Money management - Use a stop loss. In each new game I would start with the same $100.00 buy in which gave me 100 - $1 units. If I lost 30 units I would end the game and take a break.

Many traders have no set money management plan before they get into a trade and just wing it. You absolutely must know what your risk is before you enter the trade and use protective stops to protect your capital.

Rule 5: Getting a read on the game. I know from experience that when a machine is really hot I will be profitable practically right away and it will pay out often. These characteristics give me important clues to games that want to stay in until I hit my win target.

In trading what often happen is that when the trader is quickly profitable they get really excited and at the same time nervous. This is because they are so worried about losing all the time, that they get the overwhelming desire to get out of the trade and lock in some profit.

The problem with this is that they never ride the trade up far enough and to succeed at this game you have to fight the urge to bail out of a winning trade. You must learn to stick with a profitable trade so that you can lock in some big trades. It is the only way to succeed as it will make up for all your losses.

On the other hand, I would leave if the machine wasnt paying out quickly. Sometimes I would sit there for 15 minutes and keep winning a few and losing a few. After all this effort I would still not be above my starting buy-in amount.

This type of game was a sure sign that things were not going my way and probably wouldn\'t do so either. When I am in this situation I will walk away. When faced with this situation the average gambler will convince himself his luck will change. This is rarely the case as the casino usually gets the last laugh!

In my trading courses I teach that if a trade doesnt go your way within 5 bars it is more than likely going to turn into a loser. The reason is that there is no momentum. When you observe this type of market behavior then it is usually better to exit the trade and wait for a new setup.

Rule 6: Money management - Setting a stop win. When you are in Las Vegas everyone has the Las Vegas Mentality. They think that when they start winning that their luck will continue and they are going to get rich. This is exactly the stupidity that the casinos count on as they know the longer a gambler stays at the table the less likely the odds will stay in his/her favor.

It was interesting to watch my Father play as he has the Las Vegas Mentality and on many occasions he would have a nice profit and I would tell him to walk away. He would always say, Just a bit longer and I constantly watched him lose not only his profit but his entire buy-in amount as well.

When you trade you must have a Stop Win strategy. What this is is a pre-determined profit objective for you to exit at. For example it could be when you are up 5% or $200 or 15 points etc. It could be when the market hits a particular price level. For example, say you buy a stock at $10.00; you would tell yourself ahead of time that if it hits $11.00 then you are getting out. Your strategy cousl also be based on using a trailing stop.

You absolutely must decide what your Stop Win strategy is before you get into the trade!

My Stop Win strategy for the poker machines was 50 units. Anytime I was above this level I would simply cash out and take a break. For example, I got real lucky in one game and hit for 220 units on one hand and another time I hit for 1240 units. In each instance, I took the money and ran.

After 3 days in Las Vegas, it was interesting to see how I had a very profitable experience while my Father had the exact opposite. The only difference between us was that I had rules and he didnt.

Viva Las Vegas!!!

Dr. Jeffrey Wilde, a trading veteran with 16 years of experience is a trading coach to over 3500 traders in 63 countries. His new blog http://www.askjeffwilde.com offers free trading articles, tips and advice.Allianora Blog67052
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